Will we always fly in cylindrical tubes with wings?

With the Boeing Dreamliner 787 making its first international appearance at the Farnborough air show this week in the UK, I thought it would be good to post a bit about the future of commercial airliners.

I have always been fascinated by designs for concept airplanes. Looking at pictures of futuristic fighter planes and airliners in books as a child was probably one of the reasons I studied aerospace engineering as an undergrad. I always wanted to know what new type of plane was next. Wired's Autopia has been reporting on some interesting new designs, from new boom-less supersonic jets to super efficient airliners to Airbus's Concept Plane.

Everything that I have been reading details concepts that are focused primarily on improved fuel efficiency and a better passenger experience (more luxuries, entertainment choices, bigger seats and windows, improved cabin air and lighting, etc.). Do today's current economics of commercial air travel and the existing airport network infrastructure prevent any radical leaps in aircraft design? Will we always fly in cylindrical tubes with wings that fly around 500-600 mph?

I want to better understand what it could take to dramatically change our future flying experience. Will flight times ever be cut in half? Will smaller air taxis catch on for regional flights? Will we see new physical designs like the blended-wing body? Today's advances are impressive and technically significant, but I am afraid that we are going to be stuck with marginal evolutionary improvements in our air travel experience in the coming future.

OK, the u-shaped tail and integrated engines are pretty cool...

Speaking at WorldFuture 2010 in Boston

I don't get a chance to do much public speaking with my current job, but I was lucky enough to be asked by a colleague to participate on a panel of corporate foresight experts at the upcoming World Future Society's WorldFuture 2010 conference in Boston on Saturday, July 10th. I'll be part of a four-person panel discussing "Foresight in the Corporate World: Trends and Approaches That Leading Companies Use to Navigate a Fast-Changing World".

I'll mainly be giving an overview of the forward-looking techniques that IBM uses across the company, what challenges we see in the future, and an overview of our Smarter Cities concept. I haven't been to a WFS conference since 2002 in Philadelphia, so I am looking forward to attending. I was in the same city for the 2005 and 2009 conferences (both in Chicago), but I spoke at the Association of Professional Futurists development seminars instead. So, if you are going to be at WFS in Boston, stop by and say hello. I'll provide a full write-up here after the conference.

I also wanted to post a great piece of art that a graphic faciliator created while I was presenting at corporate strategy retreat at IMD in Lausanne, Switzerland this past February. Truly a great guy, and I am thankful he took the time to do this. I think it sums up the field of foresight/futures quite nicely, and it shows that we can never take ourselves too seriously...