IBM's Next 5 in 5 (2010 Edition)

It's that time of year again, when think tanks, corporations, analyst firms and scientific publications post their lists of technology predictions for the coming years. IBM has just posted its most recent "Next 5 in 5" - five innovations that will transform our lives in the next five years. These are always fun to take a look at to better understand what companies are working towards and where they think the future is headed.

This year's list includes:

• Sensors Networks - citizens with wireless devices acting like distributed sensor networks, generating massive amounts of data that can be shared and analyzed to help with environmental issues and natural disasters


• 3D Interfaces - realtime holographic interfaces, holographic communication and interacting with the Internet in 3D


• Advanced Battery Technology - batteries with 10x the current storage capacity, small personal electronic devices powered by kinetic or static electricity, batteries that breath oxygen to generate power


• Data Centers Providing Heat for Buildings - waste heat from data centers recycled to heat air and water in buildings


• Adaptive Traffic Systems - real-time information on accidents, local events, weather, and construction brought together to provide personalized congestion prediction for commuters
  
  

Prior "Next 5 in 5" publications included the following

2009

1. Cities will have healthier immune systems
2. City buildings will sense and respond like living organisms
3. Cars and city buses will run on empty
4. Smarter systems will quench cities’ thirst for water and save energy
5. Cities will respond to a crisis -- even before receiving an emergency phone call

Fast Company Article: IBM's 5 in 5: Smart Grids, Living Buildings, and Smart Water

2008

1. Energy saving solar technology will be built into asphalt, paint and windows
2. You will have a crystal ball for your health
3. You will talk to the Web . . . and the Web will talk back
4. You will have your own digital shopping assistants
5. Forgetting will become a distant memory

2007

1. 3-D representation of the human body (medical avatars)
2. Smart tagging of food using RFID and other sensors
3. Smart grids/energy/managing your personal carbon footprint
4. Cars that drive themselves
5. Cell phones used as banker, ticket broker, concierge, shopping buddy

Optimistic science fiction...can it be true?

I'll admit that I am way behind in reading modern science fiction (by modern, I mean the last 10-15 years). I've read the classics (Asimov, Bradbury, Clarke, Herbert and Heinlein) and I have read some William Gibson, Kim Stanley Robinson and David Brin, but I haven't read anything of note recently. As a futurist, I hang my head in shame...

I am excited to see that a respected best-selling author, Alastair Reynolds, is working on a trilogy of new books that he describes as a very optimistic story:

"It's about the future of space exploration in a 22nd century post-climate change world. We've gone to Mars and back to the Moon. Africa is the main economic and technological super power - it's post China, post India."

Weary of all the apocalyptic, decline of society, survivalist stories out there, I will plan on picking these up when they are complete, and hope that they are are as interesting and refreshing as they sound.

Do Different Generations Have Different Collective Views of the Future?

A long title for an important question. I was supposed to write about a number of other topics before this: the most recent Foreign Affairs issue, the "Evolving Internet" set of scenarios that Cisco and the Global Business Network recently published, a view of energy in 2035 (FT article), Gartner's most recent emerging technologies hype cycle, or an AARP article on Boomers vs. Millennials. I'll get back to those later. This topic was more interesting to me over a Starbuck's peppermint mocha (not afraid to admit I drink those) than the others at the moment.

I was wondering about generational difference, specifically has there been research done on how different generations view the future? So, what do Boomers think 2025 is going to be like, and is it different from what Generation X and the Millennials think? Obviously each generation is shaped by different forces and naturally would have a different view of their own expected future.

I am not talking about an academic, intellectual's view of the future, what the brightest minds think, but what is the popular view of the future? Who has best communicated it from each generation? What medium is it communicated through? Is it a singular vision that people rally to, or is it a collective vision that emerged?

Plenty of quite brilliant people from one generation write about generational characteristics and differences in another, but I wonder if you were to actually ask members of each generation what is their view of the future at a particular point of time, would there be substantial differences? How does each generation's vision of tomorrow shape their actions and decisions regarding science, politics, economics and philosophical matters?

Part of me asking this stems from wondering if there is a Generation X or Y equivalent to Megatrends by John Naisbitt, or Future Shock and Powershift by Alvin Toffler. Those books were best sellers and probably influenced the thinking of a lot of people decades ago. Is there something similar that has been written by Generation X or Y authors yet? Is it coming? Will it still take the form of a book, journal or article? Or will it be a movie, a wiki, a website, a business model, or some sort of other interactive media experience?

I know that all that I have done here is pose a lot of questions in a fairly haphazard manner, which is fine by me. The challenge is to begin to attempt to answer them. I'll work on it and write more about my research as I learn more.

Note to self: I think that I will try and focus the blog on generational views of the future, optimistic scenarios for the future, planning for my summer graduate business course and news items regarding the future of various stuff.

The World Ahead

I recently picked up the Nov/Dec issue of Foreign Affairs focused on major trends that could change the world and the global role of the U.S. in the future. Topics in the issue include resurgent religions, transforming technologies, demographic implosions, food shortages, energy competitions, and educational rivalries. I am particularly interested in what the authors have to say about the potential/perceived decline of American power over the coming years. I haven't dove in to the issue yet, but when I get through, I'll post my comments on my favorite essays.

The post with the links in it...

Here is one of those posts where I just list a bunch of different links and call it a "resource post". No original thought here. These are, what I feel, are important links for different aspects of foresight/futures. I cover organizations, educational resources, consultants, corporate programs, topical sites and some key blogs and books. It's meant to be representational and not comprehensive. I will continually update this list. Enjoy!

Organizations:

• APF - Association of Professional Futurists [LINK]
• WFS - World Future Society [LINK]
• SCIP - Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals [LINK]
• WFSF - World Futures Studies Federation [LINK]

Education:

• University of Houston Futures Studies [LINK]
• University of Notre Dame - Foresight in Business and Society [LINK]
• Regent University - Masters of Arts in Strategic Foresight [LINK]
• Foresight Education Project [LINK]
• Singularity University [LINK]
• Swinburne - Masters of Management (Strategic Foresight) [LINK]
• Stellenbosch University - MPhil in Future Studies [LINK]

Consultants:

• Foresight Alliance [LINK]
• Innovaro [LINK]
• Leading Futurists [LINK]
• andSpace Consulting [LINK]
• The Futures Lab [LINK]

Corporate:

• BCG Center for Sensing and Mining the Future [LINK]
• Shell (Global Scenarios) [LINK]
• Northrop Grumman Analysis Center [LINK]
• IBM Research - Global Technology Outlook [LINK]
• Deutsche Bank - Foresight - Alfred Herrhausen Society [LINK] [LINK]
• Siemens - Pictures of the Future [LINK]
• Daimler - Society and Technology Research Group [LINK]

Resources/Additional Links:

• Shaping Tomorrow [LINK]
• Foresight (future studies) [LINK]
• Corporate foresight [LINK]
• Technology forecasting [LINK]

Reach for the Stars...

Not much commentary on this one, just a great commercial that was produced back in 2006 (I think). Thanks to NASA Watch for reminding me of it. It shows the importance of vision, long-term thinking, and that as long as we inspire each new generation, the unrealized dreams of previous generations always have a fighting chance.

Will we always fly in cylindrical tubes with wings?

With the Boeing Dreamliner 787 making its first international appearance at the Farnborough air show this week in the UK, I thought it would be good to post a bit about the future of commercial airliners.

I have always been fascinated by designs for concept airplanes. Looking at pictures of futuristic fighter planes and airliners in books as a child was probably one of the reasons I studied aerospace engineering as an undergrad. I always wanted to know what new type of plane was next. Wired's Autopia has been reporting on some interesting new designs, from new boom-less supersonic jets to super efficient airliners to Airbus's Concept Plane.

Everything that I have been reading details concepts that are focused primarily on improved fuel efficiency and a better passenger experience (more luxuries, entertainment choices, bigger seats and windows, improved cabin air and lighting, etc.). Do today's current economics of commercial air travel and the existing airport network infrastructure prevent any radical leaps in aircraft design? Will we always fly in cylindrical tubes with wings that fly around 500-600 mph?

I want to better understand what it could take to dramatically change our future flying experience. Will flight times ever be cut in half? Will smaller air taxis catch on for regional flights? Will we see new physical designs like the blended-wing body? Today's advances are impressive and technically significant, but I am afraid that we are going to be stuck with marginal evolutionary improvements in our air travel experience in the coming future.

OK, the u-shaped tail and integrated engines are pretty cool...

Speaking at WorldFuture 2010 in Boston

I don't get a chance to do much public speaking with my current job, but I was lucky enough to be asked by a colleague to participate on a panel of corporate foresight experts at the upcoming World Future Society's WorldFuture 2010 conference in Boston on Saturday, July 10th. I'll be part of a four-person panel discussing "Foresight in the Corporate World: Trends and Approaches That Leading Companies Use to Navigate a Fast-Changing World".

I'll mainly be giving an overview of the forward-looking techniques that IBM uses across the company, what challenges we see in the future, and an overview of our Smarter Cities concept. I haven't been to a WFS conference since 2002 in Philadelphia, so I am looking forward to attending. I was in the same city for the 2005 and 2009 conferences (both in Chicago), but I spoke at the Association of Professional Futurists development seminars instead. So, if you are going to be at WFS in Boston, stop by and say hello. I'll provide a full write-up here after the conference.

I also wanted to post a great piece of art that a graphic faciliator created while I was presenting at corporate strategy retreat at IMD in Lausanne, Switzerland this past February. Truly a great guy, and I am thankful he took the time to do this. I think it sums up the field of foresight/futures quite nicely, and it shows that we can never take ourselves too seriously...

Where Has All the Optimism Gone?

Welcome to Watchers of Tomorrow! This blog will be my forum to talk about my thoughts about the future, trends and emerging issues I feel are important, and a place to try out ideas for my introductory course on corporate/business foresight techniques.

This will be a recurring topic that I post about, but I am wondering if we are in a distinct period of pessimism about the future that is hampering our ability to solve global problems. This could be because of a lack of compelling visions to believe in, too many real and self-imposed constraints to our actions, and global systems that have too much inertia and cannot be changed radically. I definitely think this is true in the United States, but I am unsure what the rest of the world thinks about this.

The global recession, tepid recovery, austerity plans, environmental catastrophes, scandals, prolonged wars and security situations, diminishing trust in institutions, all contribute to this general negative view of the future. We don't seem to be able to solve any problems any more. We are told that the solutions to our problems are to do more with less - less money, less energy, less people, and less opportunity. I fear we are becoming trapped by the economic, technological and social systems that have made us so successful. We are now just playing on the edges, holding on.

There was an interesting recent editorial in the New York Times entitled, "When Greatness Slips Away", by Bob Herbert. It is related to this increasingly negative view of the future in that we feel more and more helpless when it comes to the problems of our time. We cannot rise to the great challenges any more with a sense of "can do" and optimism. We can't win a war, can't stop an oil leak, can't jump start the economy, can't save our cities, can't fly to the moon, can't negotiate peace, can't shift to renewable energy...are we really in an era of "can't", or is this just a difficult transition period?

I think that the fine fictional philosopher and scientist Reed Richards sums it up (below) quite well in a speech he gave in a recent issue of the Fantastic Four comic. He is speaking to a group of individuals at what looks like is a Singularity University conference. He states that people are increasingly afraid of the future and believe we should plan for a world where we fight over increasingly limited resources. He proposes instead of trying to desperately preserve what we have, we should risk more to see what we can truly achieve.

Those are just some of my initial thoughts on the subject. I'll revisit it now and again and try to build some sort of theory and supplement with examples. I hope I am wrong about this trend, but unfortunately, I don't think I am.