The Frontier Is Everywhere...

Sitting in a blizzard, working from home, I stumbled upon this video today. "NASA – The Frontier is Everywhere” is a video created by Reid Gower for NASA, but not by NASA, or at the request of NASA (but they should have made it). It was modeled after Michael Marantz’ short film, Earth: The Pale Blue Dot, and it features Carl Sagan’s voice. You can find more information on the background of the video at mental_floss. Like previous space exploration videos I have posted, this is an extremely optimistic view of a long-term future for humanity. I feel we, as a civilization, need more of this type of positive, visionary thinking.

Futurist Colleagues on Coast to Coast AM

Some colleagues and friends of mine from the University of Houston were recently on Coast to Coast AM to help kick off the new year. I'll admit I haven't listened to the entire show yet, but it was great to hear that Peter Bishop, Andy Hines, Terry Grim and Garry Golden got a chance to be on the show. They discussed techniques for long term forecasting and some emerging trends.

Strategic Planning + Futures Studies

Link to a good journal article on the "Intersection of Strategic Planning and Futures Studies: Methodological Complementarities" [LINK].

IBM's Next 5 in 5 (2010 Edition)

It's that time of year again, when think tanks, corporations, analyst firms and scientific publications post their lists of technology predictions for the coming years. IBM has just posted its most recent "Next 5 in 5" - five innovations that will transform our lives in the next five years. These are always fun to take a look at to better understand what companies are working towards and where they think the future is headed.

This year's list includes:

• Sensors Networks - citizens with wireless devices acting like distributed sensor networks, generating massive amounts of data that can be shared and analyzed to help with environmental issues and natural disasters


• 3D Interfaces - realtime holographic interfaces, holographic communication and interacting with the Internet in 3D


• Advanced Battery Technology - batteries with 10x the current storage capacity, small personal electronic devices powered by kinetic or static electricity, batteries that breath oxygen to generate power


• Data Centers Providing Heat for Buildings - waste heat from data centers recycled to heat air and water in buildings


• Adaptive Traffic Systems - real-time information on accidents, local events, weather, and construction brought together to provide personalized congestion prediction for commuters
  
  

Prior "Next 5 in 5" publications included the following

2009

1. Cities will have healthier immune systems
2. City buildings will sense and respond like living organisms
3. Cars and city buses will run on empty
4. Smarter systems will quench cities’ thirst for water and save energy
5. Cities will respond to a crisis -- even before receiving an emergency phone call

Fast Company Article: IBM's 5 in 5: Smart Grids, Living Buildings, and Smart Water

2008

1. Energy saving solar technology will be built into asphalt, paint and windows
2. You will have a crystal ball for your health
3. You will talk to the Web . . . and the Web will talk back
4. You will have your own digital shopping assistants
5. Forgetting will become a distant memory

2007

1. 3-D representation of the human body (medical avatars)
2. Smart tagging of food using RFID and other sensors
3. Smart grids/energy/managing your personal carbon footprint
4. Cars that drive themselves
5. Cell phones used as banker, ticket broker, concierge, shopping buddy

Optimistic science fiction...can it be true?

I'll admit that I am way behind in reading modern science fiction (by modern, I mean the last 10-15 years). I've read the classics (Asimov, Bradbury, Clarke, Herbert and Heinlein) and I have read some William Gibson, Kim Stanley Robinson and David Brin, but I haven't read anything of note recently. As a futurist, I hang my head in shame...

I am excited to see that a respected best-selling author, Alastair Reynolds, is working on a trilogy of new books that he describes as a very optimistic story:

"It's about the future of space exploration in a 22nd century post-climate change world. We've gone to Mars and back to the Moon. Africa is the main economic and technological super power - it's post China, post India."

Weary of all the apocalyptic, decline of society, survivalist stories out there, I will plan on picking these up when they are complete, and hope that they are are as interesting and refreshing as they sound.

Do Different Generations Have Different Collective Views of the Future?

A long title for an important question. I was supposed to write about a number of other topics before this: the most recent Foreign Affairs issue, the "Evolving Internet" set of scenarios that Cisco and the Global Business Network recently published, a view of energy in 2035 (FT article), Gartner's most recent emerging technologies hype cycle, or an AARP article on Boomers vs. Millennials. I'll get back to those later. This topic was more interesting to me over a Starbuck's peppermint mocha (not afraid to admit I drink those) than the others at the moment.

I was wondering about generational difference, specifically has there been research done on how different generations view the future? So, what do Boomers think 2025 is going to be like, and is it different from what Generation X and the Millennials think? Obviously each generation is shaped by different forces and naturally would have a different view of their own expected future.

I am not talking about an academic, intellectual's view of the future, what the brightest minds think, but what is the popular view of the future? Who has best communicated it from each generation? What medium is it communicated through? Is it a singular vision that people rally to, or is it a collective vision that emerged?

Plenty of quite brilliant people from one generation write about generational characteristics and differences in another, but I wonder if you were to actually ask members of each generation what is their view of the future at a particular point of time, would there be substantial differences? How does each generation's vision of tomorrow shape their actions and decisions regarding science, politics, economics and philosophical matters?

Part of me asking this stems from wondering if there is a Generation X or Y equivalent to Megatrends by John Naisbitt, or Future Shock and Powershift by Alvin Toffler. Those books were best sellers and probably influenced the thinking of a lot of people decades ago. Is there something similar that has been written by Generation X or Y authors yet? Is it coming? Will it still take the form of a book, journal or article? Or will it be a movie, a wiki, a website, a business model, or some sort of other interactive media experience?

I know that all that I have done here is pose a lot of questions in a fairly haphazard manner, which is fine by me. The challenge is to begin to attempt to answer them. I'll work on it and write more about my research as I learn more.

Note to self: I think that I will try and focus the blog on generational views of the future, optimistic scenarios for the future, planning for my summer graduate business course and news items regarding the future of various stuff.

The World Ahead

I recently picked up the Nov/Dec issue of Foreign Affairs focused on major trends that could change the world and the global role of the U.S. in the future. Topics in the issue include resurgent religions, transforming technologies, demographic implosions, food shortages, energy competitions, and educational rivalries. I am particularly interested in what the authors have to say about the potential/perceived decline of American power over the coming years. I haven't dove in to the issue yet, but when I get through, I'll post my comments on my favorite essays.