Optimistic science fiction...can it be true?

I'll admit that I am way behind in reading modern science fiction (by modern, I mean the last 10-15 years). I've read the classics (Asimov, Bradbury, Clarke, Herbert and Heinlein) and I have read some William Gibson, Kim Stanley Robinson and David Brin, but I haven't read anything of note recently. As a futurist, I hang my head in shame...

I am excited to see that a respected best-selling author, Alastair Reynolds, is working on a trilogy of new books that he describes as a very optimistic story:

"It's about the future of space exploration in a 22nd century post-climate change world. We've gone to Mars and back to the Moon. Africa is the main economic and technological super power - it's post China, post India."

Weary of all the apocalyptic, decline of society, survivalist stories out there, I will plan on picking these up when they are complete, and hope that they are are as interesting and refreshing as they sound.

Do Different Generations Have Different Collective Views of the Future?

A long title for an important question. I was supposed to write about a number of other topics before this: the most recent Foreign Affairs issue, the "Evolving Internet" set of scenarios that Cisco and the Global Business Network recently published, a view of energy in 2035 (FT article), Gartner's most recent emerging technologies hype cycle, or an AARP article on Boomers vs. Millennials. I'll get back to those later. This topic was more interesting to me over a Starbuck's peppermint mocha (not afraid to admit I drink those) than the others at the moment.

I was wondering about generational difference, specifically has there been research done on how different generations view the future? So, what do Boomers think 2025 is going to be like, and is it different from what Generation X and the Millennials think? Obviously each generation is shaped by different forces and naturally would have a different view of their own expected future.

I am not talking about an academic, intellectual's view of the future, what the brightest minds think, but what is the popular view of the future? Who has best communicated it from each generation? What medium is it communicated through? Is it a singular vision that people rally to, or is it a collective vision that emerged?

Plenty of quite brilliant people from one generation write about generational characteristics and differences in another, but I wonder if you were to actually ask members of each generation what is their view of the future at a particular point of time, would there be substantial differences? How does each generation's vision of tomorrow shape their actions and decisions regarding science, politics, economics and philosophical matters?

Part of me asking this stems from wondering if there is a Generation X or Y equivalent to Megatrends by John Naisbitt, or Future Shock and Powershift by Alvin Toffler. Those books were best sellers and probably influenced the thinking of a lot of people decades ago. Is there something similar that has been written by Generation X or Y authors yet? Is it coming? Will it still take the form of a book, journal or article? Or will it be a movie, a wiki, a website, a business model, or some sort of other interactive media experience?

I know that all that I have done here is pose a lot of questions in a fairly haphazard manner, which is fine by me. The challenge is to begin to attempt to answer them. I'll work on it and write more about my research as I learn more.

Note to self: I think that I will try and focus the blog on generational views of the future, optimistic scenarios for the future, planning for my summer graduate business course and news items regarding the future of various stuff.

The World Ahead

I recently picked up the Nov/Dec issue of Foreign Affairs focused on major trends that could change the world and the global role of the U.S. in the future. Topics in the issue include resurgent religions, transforming technologies, demographic implosions, food shortages, energy competitions, and educational rivalries. I am particularly interested in what the authors have to say about the potential/perceived decline of American power over the coming years. I haven't dove in to the issue yet, but when I get through, I'll post my comments on my favorite essays.

The post with the links in it...

Here is one of those posts where I just list a bunch of different links and call it a "resource post". No original thought here. These are, what I feel, are important links for different aspects of foresight/futures. I cover organizations, educational resources, consultants, corporate programs, topical sites and some key blogs and books. It's meant to be representational and not comprehensive. I will continually update this list. Enjoy!

Organizations:

• APF - Association of Professional Futurists [LINK]
• WFS - World Future Society [LINK]
• SCIP - Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals [LINK]
• WFSF - World Futures Studies Federation [LINK]

Education:

• University of Houston Futures Studies [LINK]
• University of Notre Dame - Foresight in Business and Society [LINK]
• Regent University - Masters of Arts in Strategic Foresight [LINK]
• Foresight Education Project [LINK]
• Singularity University [LINK]
• Swinburne - Masters of Management (Strategic Foresight) [LINK]
• Stellenbosch University - MPhil in Future Studies [LINK]

Consultants:

• Foresight Alliance [LINK]
• Innovaro [LINK]
• Leading Futurists [LINK]
• andSpace Consulting [LINK]
• The Futures Lab [LINK]

Corporate:

• BCG Center for Sensing and Mining the Future [LINK]
• Shell (Global Scenarios) [LINK]
• Northrop Grumman Analysis Center [LINK]
• IBM Research - Global Technology Outlook [LINK]
• Deutsche Bank - Foresight - Alfred Herrhausen Society [LINK] [LINK]
• Siemens - Pictures of the Future [LINK]
• Daimler - Society and Technology Research Group [LINK]

Resources/Additional Links:

• Shaping Tomorrow [LINK]
• Foresight (future studies) [LINK]
• Corporate foresight [LINK]
• Technology forecasting [LINK]

Reach for the Stars...

Not much commentary on this one, just a great commercial that was produced back in 2006 (I think). Thanks to NASA Watch for reminding me of it. It shows the importance of vision, long-term thinking, and that as long as we inspire each new generation, the unrealized dreams of previous generations always have a fighting chance.

Will we always fly in cylindrical tubes with wings?

With the Boeing Dreamliner 787 making its first international appearance at the Farnborough air show this week in the UK, I thought it would be good to post a bit about the future of commercial airliners.

I have always been fascinated by designs for concept airplanes. Looking at pictures of futuristic fighter planes and airliners in books as a child was probably one of the reasons I studied aerospace engineering as an undergrad. I always wanted to know what new type of plane was next. Wired's Autopia has been reporting on some interesting new designs, from new boom-less supersonic jets to super efficient airliners to Airbus's Concept Plane.

Everything that I have been reading details concepts that are focused primarily on improved fuel efficiency and a better passenger experience (more luxuries, entertainment choices, bigger seats and windows, improved cabin air and lighting, etc.). Do today's current economics of commercial air travel and the existing airport network infrastructure prevent any radical leaps in aircraft design? Will we always fly in cylindrical tubes with wings that fly around 500-600 mph?

I want to better understand what it could take to dramatically change our future flying experience. Will flight times ever be cut in half? Will smaller air taxis catch on for regional flights? Will we see new physical designs like the blended-wing body? Today's advances are impressive and technically significant, but I am afraid that we are going to be stuck with marginal evolutionary improvements in our air travel experience in the coming future.

OK, the u-shaped tail and integrated engines are pretty cool...

Speaking at WorldFuture 2010 in Boston

I don't get a chance to do much public speaking with my current job, but I was lucky enough to be asked by a colleague to participate on a panel of corporate foresight experts at the upcoming World Future Society's WorldFuture 2010 conference in Boston on Saturday, July 10th. I'll be part of a four-person panel discussing "Foresight in the Corporate World: Trends and Approaches That Leading Companies Use to Navigate a Fast-Changing World".

I'll mainly be giving an overview of the forward-looking techniques that IBM uses across the company, what challenges we see in the future, and an overview of our Smarter Cities concept. I haven't been to a WFS conference since 2002 in Philadelphia, so I am looking forward to attending. I was in the same city for the 2005 and 2009 conferences (both in Chicago), but I spoke at the Association of Professional Futurists development seminars instead. So, if you are going to be at WFS in Boston, stop by and say hello. I'll provide a full write-up here after the conference.

I also wanted to post a great piece of art that a graphic faciliator created while I was presenting at corporate strategy retreat at IMD in Lausanne, Switzerland this past February. Truly a great guy, and I am thankful he took the time to do this. I think it sums up the field of foresight/futures quite nicely, and it shows that we can never take ourselves too seriously...